By Zenitha Prince
Washington Bureau Chief
RALEIGH, N.C. – Barack Obama’s commanding 14-point victory in North Carolina and a slim 2-point loss to Hillary Clinton in Indiana expanded the front-runner’s lead in both delegates and popular votes, depriving Clinton of her best – and perhaps only – chance of overtaking him.
“It’s more or less decided, even if she goes on to win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Ricoo,” Larry Sabato, a noted University of Virginia political scientist, told the Christian Science Monitor. “Those were the two races the [super] delegates were waiting for, and Barack Obama came back to a strong victory in North Carolina after the polls showed it was getting close.”
“She needed to win both states in order to win this nomination and she didn’t...”
An impressive victory in North Carolina has delivered a much-needed boost to Sen. Barack Obama, who had not won a major contest in nearly two months, including setbacks in Ohio and Pennsylvania. After winning 10 straight contests and then sputtering, Obama needed a victory in either North Carolina or Indiana to regain his momentum.
“This was a really good night for Obama,” said Paula McClain, professor of political science at Duke University. “This puts him back in good stead. It pulls the momentum back to him. It’s also possible that his popular vote total in North Carolina could wipe out [Clinton’s] vote total in Pennsylvania.”
In his victory speech, a clearly energized Obama poked at Clinton, who had told voters in Kinston, N.C., that the state’s primary would be a “game-changer” for her campaign.
“There were people who said North Carolina would be a game-changer,” he said to a screaming crowd in Raleigh. “Today, the people of North Carolina said that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.”
Clinton won Indiana by only 23,000 votes among more than 1.25 million votes cast. In a speech in Indianapolis, Clinton pledged to continue her fight and made an appeal for donations. She said, “Tonight, I need your help to continue this journey.”
But experts are in near-unanimous agreement that it is a journey to nowhere. According to a tally by MSNBC, Obama increased his delegate lead by nine when the returns of North Carolina and Indiana are combined. He now leads Clinton 1,876 to 1,729 delegates, with 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination. With only 217 delegates at stake in the remaining six contests, it seems unlikely that she can catch Obama, who is leading among nearly 800 superdelegates.
The former first lady had a relatively good month as her opponent was hammered by the media about his ill-advised statement about “bitter” small town voters and the imbroglio over statements by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Unfortunately for Obama, Wright’s decision to return to the public stage in speeches and interviews did not help the Illinois senator.
In fact, according to exit polls, in Indiana most people that decided within the last month sided with her. That she couldn’t clinch the deal was somewhat surprising.
“She needed to win both states in order to win this nomination and she didn’t,” said analyst and CNN contributor David Gergen. “The game’s almost up for her.”
Obama won across most voter blocs, including his base—93 percent of African Americans voters (31 percent of electorate) voted for the Illinois senator.
“I wish my grandparents were alive to see this--a Black who has an actual chance of becoming president,” said Harriet Southerland, 55, of Raleigh.
The Illinois senator, who could potentially become the first African-American president, also won over loyal Clinton voters: those with college degrees and those without; those with larger incomes and smaller incomes and those in urban communities and rural communities. Across age categories, Clinton had an advantage only among voters 65 and older. Obama even scored a 54-42 margin among voters like Rocky Mount resident Maryann Chambliss, a White, older woman. Women have been stalwart Clinton supporters.
“My chief concern is to get the establishment out of Washington that has been there for so long and that means Obama and not Clinton,” Chambliss said of her choice.
For Obama, this North Carolina win helps neutralize Clinton’s appeal to superdelegates that she would be the better general election candidate because of her victories in big swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, New York and others.
“I want to thank the people for giving us a victory in a big state, a swing state,” Obama said in his victory speech.
Exit polls reveal other trends that have concerned Democratic Party officials, political observers and voters, however.
In both states, Clinton scored well among conservative voters. Of particular interest was Clinton’s advantage among rural voters, 70 percent of whom cast their ballots for her, and working-class/lower-income voters, who voted 52-48 percent for her.
The economy, including rising fuel and food prices and the loss of jobs, has been the chief concern this group has taken to the ballot box.
In Indiana, 89 percent of those polled say they were affected by recession and among them, 53 percent voted for Clinton. Many see her as the candidate best able to revive the economy, an opinion based in part on their romantic view of the Bill Clinton administration.
“If you look at the history of her husband, he came along when the other Bush
had messed things up and fixed up the economy,” said Willie Yarborough, 73, a retired steelworker from Castalia, a small rural community in North Carolina. "The country was doing good until [George W.] Bush became president.”
The dustup over Obama’s former pastor may have further disconnected Obama from these voters. Tapes of sermons in which Rev. Wright posited that America may have created AIDS to kill Blacks; that the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 were America’s “chickens coming home to roost;” that Nation of Islam Minster Louis Farrakhan is a noteworthy leader and in which he declared, “God damn America!” among other statement, have been heating up the airwaves.
In North Carolina, 59 percent of those who said the Rev. Wright issue was important voted for Clinton. And, in Indiana, 46 percent said it was important and 72 percent of those people sided with Clinton.
Indiana exit polls showed:
• People who cared most about whether candidate could win in November voted 63-37 for Clinton and those concerned with experience gave her a 93 to 7 edge.
• Twelve percent of those who voted for Obama think Hillary can clinch fall election; 6 percent of Clinton supporters felt the same about Obama.
“It’s the experience bit,” said Obama supporter Rick Isaza, 47, an engineer from Rocky Mount, said. “He’s going to be playing against a pretty respected senator.”
Race could also prove a factor in Obama’s ability to win.
In both North Carolina and Indiana, Clinton held a near 6-2 advantage among White voters. While Black candidates would likely vote for a White candidate, many say, there are some Whites who will not vote for a Black man.
“If you look at it as it is, those crackers aren’t going to vote for no Black man for the U.S. president,” Yarborough said. “White conservative Democrats, especially in this state are going to vote for McCain and they’ve already said that. So, I’m voting for Hillary because a vote for Obama is a vote for John McCain.”
As was the case in other states, polls here also show that a higher percentage of Clinton supporters said they would not vote for Obama if he were the nominee compared to the Obama supporters who would not support Clinton.
McClain, the political analyst from Duke University, said those numbers could change in the fall, however.
“The numbers will not be nearly as high as what people are saying in the heat of election night,”she explained. The professor also questioned the knock on Obama that he cannot attract blue-collar workers.
“Since Reagan, the Democrats have not had large numbers of White, blue-collar voters,” she said. “So the notion that somehow Obama must draw these voters when White [Democratic] candidates have not been able to bring them in either is a specious, bogus argument to make.”
She noted that no one has been challenging Clinton’s loss of support among Black voters, a bedrock demographic of the party.
“Democrats cannot win without a solid, Black voter base and Clinton support among Black voters has decreased steadily,” she said. “Yet, the question has been, ‘Can Barack Obama attract blue-collar workers? as opposed to, ‘Is Hillary Clinton going to be able to get Black voters back?’”
She continued, “Black folks get lost or taken for granted because they are loyal Democrats. But if she wins the nomination, she will have to work just as hard as Obama has worked hard.”
That loyalty among Black voters should not be tested by giving the nomination over to Sen. Clinton, some say.
“I don’t see how superdelegates [would] take away the nomination from an African-American candidate when African American make up 25 percent of the Democratic vote,” Gergen said in a CNN roundtable discussion.
It’s just one of many factors superdelegates will struggle with as they cast their votes for the party’s nominee. The widening schism between Democrats and the pitting of voter categories against each other is causing alarm among party leaders.
Pundits need to stop talking “as if the party would just rely on blue-collar workers,” superdelegate Donna Brazile scolded other political analysts in a CNN roundtable that was examining the results of the May 6 primaries. “To suggest that Clinton’s coalition is better than Obama’s coalition is divisive and unfair. I’m sick of the divisions.”
In a speech that seemed like the first of a possible Obama-McCain match-up in November, the Illinois senator called for Democrats to put aside their differences and unite around a common cause.
“Tonight, some of the pundits have said this party is inalterably divided; that [Clinton’s] supporters would not support me or that my supporters would not support her—I don’t believe it,” he said. ““We cannot give John McCain a chance to serve out George Bush’s third term and that’s why we’ll be unified in November.”